Arsenal FC vs Bayer Leverkusen, UEFA Champions League 2025-26, Today Match Prediction

Arsenal FC vs Bayer Leverkusen Match Prediction & Analysis

Wednesday's second leg at the Emirates carries the full weight of a knockout tie perfectly poised at 1-1. Arsenal's home record in European competition makes them narrow favourites, but Leverkusen's away goals threat demands respect. Whoever controls the midfield battle early will likely dictate where this tie goes, and ultimately, who books a quarter-final place. 

Bukayo Saka has contributed two goals and two assists across seven UCL appearances this season, and his directness against Leverkusen's left-sided defensive cover makes him Arsenal's primary threat. Across all competitions, he has recorded six goals and four assists in the Premier League alone, sustaining the kind of output that keeps defences permanently pinned back.

Alejandro Grimaldo has registered four goals and two assists in ten UCL outings this season, making him far more than a functional left wing-back. His ability to arrive late into the box and deliver from wide areas gives Leverkusen a genuine second-phase attacking option, and Arsenal's right side must account for him from the first whistle.

Head-to-Head Stats: Arsenal and Leverkusen have met three times in total, with the Gunners winning once and drawing twice; scoring six goals across those encounters while conceding just three.

TEAMS PREVIEW

Arsenal FC Preview

Arsenal carry genuine momentum into Wednesday's second leg at the Emirates, where Mikel Arteta's side look to convert a 1-1 draw in Germany into a quarter-final place. Across nine UCL fixtures this season, they have averaged 2.67 goals per game; a figure that reflects both their attacking depth and the tactical variety Arteta deploys in European nights.

That output looks even more impressive when set against their defensive record: just five goals conceded across those nine games, averaging 0.56 per match, with five clean sheets confirming a backline that has been among Europe's most dependable.

Recent form across all competitions tells a similarly encouraging story. Arsenal have scored eight goals in their last five games, wins over Everton (2-0), Mansfield (2-1), Brighton (1-0) and Chelsea (2-1), along with the Leverkusen draw, conceding only twice in that run. The defensive solidity, in particular, hands them a strong base from which to attack on Tuesday.

Arteta does face selection headaches, however. Mikel Merino is ruled out until late May 2026 with a foot injury. Both Martin Ødegaard (knee) and Leandro Trossard (muscle) are listed as doubtful, and their absences would strip Arsenal of key creative and attacking influence at a critical juncture of the season. 

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): David Raya - Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel, Piero Hincapié - Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice - Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Gabriel Martinelli - Viktor Gyökeres.

Bayer Leverkusen Preview

Bayer Leverkusen arrive at the Emirates on Wednesday needing to overturn a 1-1 aggregate deficit. It is a task made considerably harder by a recent run of form that has produced just one win in five games across all competitions. 

Kasper Hjulmand's side have scored seven goals and conceded six in that stretch, drawing three league games either side of the first leg, including a 3-3 stalemate at Freiburg and a 1-1 home draw with Bayern Munich at the weekend.

Leverkusen have scored seven goals and conceded six across their last five matches, claiming just one win, a 1-0 away result at Hamburger SV, in that period. 

Throughout the full UCL campaign, their output has been reasonable if uneven: their eight league-phase opponents included Copenhagen, PSV, PSG, Benfica, Manchester City, Newcastle, Olympiacos, and Villarreal, across which they scored 13 goals and conceded 14.

Including the playoff and the first leg, Leverkusen have averaged approximately 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per UCL game across 11 fixtures this season. These are figures that underline both their attacking threat and defensive fragility.

On the injury front, Arthur, Loic Bade, Lucas Vazquez, Mark Flekken, and Nathan Tella are all unavailable, significantly depleting Hjulmand's options across defence and attack. Eliesse Ben Seghir was targeting a return for the Bayern fixture on 14 March, making him a possible inclusion. Patrik Schick, Leverkusen's key striker, was also a doubt ahead of the first leg with a muscular injury. 

Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1): Janis Blaswich - Jarell Quansah, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba - Ernest Poku, Exequiel Palacios, Aleix García, Alejandro Grimaldo - Martin Terrier, Ibrahim Maza - Christian Kofane.

ARSENAL FC vs BAYER LEVERKUSEN
Winning Prediction

Arsenal should win this second leg and progress, with their Emirates record and superior UCL form across the season making them firm favourites. Expect a tightly contested opening before the Gunners find their rhythm. 

Arsenal to win (2-1)

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