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Forest Eye Season-Defining Upset Against Top-Four Villa
Aston Villa to win (2-1)
Tournament: English Premier League 2025-26 | Venue: City Ground, Nottingham
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Two sides separated by 22 points in the Premier League table square off at the City Ground on Sunday, with Forest desperate for points to avoid the drop and Villa keen to keep up the pressure in the top four.
Both teams arrive at this fixture off the back of mixed European runs, and a fiercely contested 90 minutes looks likely.
Current Standings: Nottingham Forest sit 16th on 32 points from 31 matches, four points above the relegation zone, while Aston Villa occupy fourth place on 54 points.
Head-To-Head Stats: Across all competitions historically, Aston Villa lead the head-to-head record with 52 wins compared to Nottingham Forest's 33, with 26 matches ending in draws and Villa scoring 194 goals to Forest's 161.
Nottingham Forest have found the net 31 times across 31 Premier League outings this season, averaging precisely 1.00 goal per game. Defensively, the picture is equally troubling, with the side conceding 43 league goals, which works out to 1.39 per game. The goals-against column alone tells a sobering story about a side that has spent much of the campaign in genuine danger.
Across their last five games in all competitions, Forest scored six goals, finding the net three times against Tottenham, once against FC Midtjylland, once during the 2–2 draw at Manchester City, and failing to score in the goalless stalemate with Fulham and the 0–1 home defeat to Midtjylland.
In that same five-game window, they conceded seven goals, including two at the Etihad and one each in those cup and league fixtures.
On the team news front, Savona is out for the season with a knee injury. Victor and Wood are sidelined until early June, while Cunha faces a return around mid-April. Boly is set for late May. Hutchinson and Aina are both doubtful due to physical discomfort, but could feature depending on late fitness assessments ahead of kick-off.
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): M. Sels; N. Williams, Murillo, N. Milenković, Morato; E. Anderson, Ibrahim Sangaré; C. Hudson-Odoi, M. Gibbs-White, D. Ndoye; I. Jesus.
Aston Villa have scored 42 Premier League goals in 31 matches this season, averaging 1.35 goals per game. They have, however, conceded 37 times in the league, averaging 1.19 goals per game, suggesting a competitive team going forward but occasionally vulnerable at the back.
Over their last five games across all competitions, Villa scored seven goals, netting twice against West Ham, twice against Lille, once in the defeat to Manchester United, and once in the away win at Lille, while conceding four.
The losses to Manchester United (3–1) and Elche (2–1 in a pre-season friendly context) were offset by three convincing victories that highlighted Villa's ability to control games when the mood is right.
Ollie Watkins leads the line with nine Premier League goals this season, backed up by Morgan Rogers (eight goals) and Emi Buendía (five goals), giving Villa plenty of firepower from multiple areas. On the injury front, Kamara misses this game with a knee injury expected to keep him out until early June, forcing a reshuffle in central midfield. The rest of the squad appears fit and available for Unai Emery.
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): D. Martínez; M. Cash, E. Konsa, P. Torres, L. Digne; A. Onana, Youri Tielemans; J. Sancho, J. McGinn, M. Rogers; O. Watkins.
Villa's superior form, clinical attack, and away record make them strong favourites here, and Forest's leaky defence offers the visitors clear opportunities to score. A 1–2 away win for Aston Villa looks the likeliest outcome, with Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers combining to punish Forest on the counter.
Aston Villa to win (2-1)
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